I found that the chances of getting a hat didnt add up with how long it was supposed to take to get one so I tried it myself:
1/4 chance of getting an item every 25 minutes
if you get an item there's a 1/2000 chance it'll be a hat
so the chance of getting a hat every 25 minutes is 0.25x1/2000 = 0.000125
So let's say you use the idle program and have tf2 idling 24/7 for a week
the chance of NOT getting a hat in that week is (1-0.000125)^(24x7x2.4) = 0.951 = 95.1%
So basically if you idle for an entire week non-stop there's a 4.9% chance you'll get a hatEDIT: I think Yoda added an extra 0 to 200, which is why the chances seemed so wrong.
In that case the chance of getting a hat every full week of playing would be 40%
Last edited by Lucien (2009-08-20 07:55:51)