B,
There is currently too much US investment in China for both countries to allow armed conflict. AMD, Seagate, Intel have manufacturing facilities in China, some of which are huge. So, imo the face off might be remote. The Taiwan issue may eventually disappear if the general populace on that island can see the long term benefits of an integrated economy. But I think this may take time and hard sell from the Chinese government.
To the point about Chinese being paid low wages, it really is relative to the cost of living. The same can be said about the East Europeans too and how some manufacturing facilities are relocating from Western Europe to Eastern Europe (I stand corrected on this). Its not just China.
I still maintain that the future of armed conflicts will not be a superpower face off, but a religion-related one. The Chinese will come out tops as they are not drawn into religious conflicts and avoid debilitating their economy over armed conflicts. Investors see that as a safe haven to park manufacturing operations, and the technology transfer will eventually benefit the Chinese. Just as Nikon took apart European cameras and made a household name for themselves, I see the same thing happening eventually for the Chinese. They are even featuring a car in the upcoming Detroit Motor Show (I think), which shows how serious they are in making a mark on the world economy. I believe Haier is already making inroads in the American consumer market, and wasnt it a report made (I saw this on an American tv channel back during X'mas of '04) about how many gifts being purchased for the festive season are actually made in the US?
So, once more,imho.. Economic Superpower (Future) = China
Military Superpower (Future) = US for its technologically advance military
Edit:
The Taiwanese themselves recently allowed the transfer of technology in the manufacturing of 8" silicon wafer fabrication facility to be setup in China. So, it really is a matter of time before Taiwan becomes integrated into China, and hopefully for the sake of all those in Asia, peacefully.
Last edited by mikeshw (2006-01-18 05:09:54)