uziq
Member
+493|3673
i’m not sure what the point is in your repeated attempts to apportion ‘blame’ and tut-tut at our global system.

a pandemic like this was a matter of time. epidemiologists were saying 5 years ago that the global system we have devised is not ready to cope with a novel disease.

it could have originated anywhere. your fantasies about people not foraging for bushmeat or industrialised nations giving up factory farming or leather production or whatever aren’t exactly realistic.

chinese medicine is an abomination for about half a dozen reasons but SARS/MERS both developed without any questionable human practices. the avian flu is extremely virulent and much more deadly than coronavirus and is only 1-2 mutations away from being human-host compatible at any given time.

european countries and the united states have bungled their own handling and containment phase at several different steps — there’s been a lot more to it than just closing all flights. early testing and quarantines were not effective. countries like the US have had poor federal direction and a lack of leadership, not to mention a systemic lack of funding and organisation. ditto the UK now finds itself without any ventilators or hospital resources, because we’ve been starving and whittling down our hospitals as part of a political decision-making process for 10 years.

the world was totally unprepared despite multiple warnings. you seem incapable of acknowledging that and festering over little revenge-retribution fantasies with china. ‘i wonder how we’re going to get payback when all this is said and done ...’. utterly pointless. as it stands, china have been at the forefront of sharing medical data. they are now sending huge amounts of aid to places like Italy (‘because it’s their fault!’ you cry vainly; no, because italy sent huge numbers of rescue teams and experts to china after their last devastating earthquake).

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 03:06:39)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England
New York City schools are shut down for a month. All bars and restaurants are now closed except for takeout. Millions of people will be out of work just in NYC alone. I hope the drama queens are now satiated.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+493|3673
what exactly isn't dramatic about a novel virus that is highly dangerous even to people in their 20s and 30s? one with a putative vaccine that is still 18 months away from being developed and clinically approved?

what's the economic damage of having 90% of the working population sick for 3-4 weeks within the space of a year, jay? and maybe sick 2-3 times, as they become reinfected further on?

what're the costs to the healthcare system of needing to hospitalise and intensively care for that many patients?

do you actually care at all about the workers on the frontline of this crisis, those pulling nonstop hours in healthcare or in public roles with a high risk of infection, or are you just being pissy because 'the dems support it' and because your pension pot might be detrimentally affected?

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 04:00:38)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England

uziq wrote:

what exactly isn't dramatic about a novel virus that is highly dangerous even to people in their 20s and 30s? one with a putative vaccine that is still 18 months away from being developed and clinically approved?

what's the economic damage of having 90% of the working population sick for 3-4 weeks within the space of a year, jay? and maybe sick 2-3 times, as they become reinfected further on?

what're the costs to the healthcare system of needing to hospitalise and intensively care for that many patients?

do you actually care at all about the workers on the frontline of this crisis, those pulling nonstop hours in healthcare or in public roles with a high risk of infection, or are you just being pissy because 'the dems support it' and because your pension pot might be detrimentally affected?
The self-quarantining that people are doing right now isn't effective at all. Unless everyone buys in and stays home for the next two weeks together it's just going to extend it. As people come out of their self imposed quarantine they're gonna start getting sick from the people that ignored it and carried on as usual.

Sometimes the medicine is worse than the disease, and in this case I believe it to be true. Most people don't have even a weeks worth of pay saved up. Who's going to pay for their rent, utilities and food next month when the bill for this madness comes due? Who's going to bailout all the restaurants that are going to go belly up because people are scared out of their minds right now? I've had those shitty jobs where you're living on the edge and a strong wind can blow you deep into debt. It's terrifying.

We're going to end up with riots and looting in a weeks time. Mark my words.

Last edited by Jay (2020-03-16 04:23:34)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+493|3673
extending it is the whole fucking point! haha. it's like you don't understand the basic epidemiology AT ALL.

at this point the problem isn't going away. it's going to be here until peak summer, when it might abate for a while, but then in all likelihood it will return again in fall/winter 2020/21. realistically this is not going to stop disrupting our lives or being a factor in our business until we develop a vaccine. it's not going to go back into its box. trump saying "it'll go away" might stop the sweat from beading on approximately 3.5 gullible traders' brows on wall street, but it is scientifically illiterate.

we are past the phase of containment (a self-inflicted failure in the case of america, where your testing was singularly incompetent), and it is now a matter of delaying infection rates and PRECISELY 'extending it'.

you keep saying how it's no more dangerous than flu (which is demonstrably false). but we are only at the beginning of the crisis in places like the US and UK. the real danger is when the health system collapses due to too many cases, all at once: this is why italy has a mortality rate of nearer 7-8%. yes, mortality rates among the young are low, but that's because the young are being prioritised and given necessary ICU treatment. this virus can put a healthy 30-something on their ass in intensive care for 2-3 weeks, without which they would die of pneumonia or heart failure. think about that. the UK has about 3,300 ventilators. the US won't declare its exact numbers but fauci above is on record as saying that publicly there are around 5,000 available. you can afford to have fewer than 10,000 people in total at any one time suffering a complex/severe case of this virus. after that, you have to triage so that, say, those > 60 are not given treatment and inevitably die. the ENTIRE strategy therefore is to delay it and to let the inevitable happen gradually.

how do you not understand that at all? yes, it is not as dangerous as ebola where scary-high numbers drop dead. but it is a public health crisis: the virus might not be as 'lethal', but it is far, far more infectious, and people will die because of resource management/allocation, and a lack of care. developing severe pneumonia is no joke. it requires a month of top-tier hospitalization to survive without life-changing injuries.

'the medicine is worse than the disease'? you are slightly unreal with this. you would rather die than lose money? you would rather trust politicians with their guidance on this, with their eye on electability and economic performance, than the medical experts who can tell you, categorically, how dangerous this virus is? yes, people are going to suffer economic hardship. yes, it will be a question of governments having to mobilize aid, funding, exceptional measures. what's the alternative? everyone spreads this thing in a firestorm because 'business must go on as usual'? you'd literally rather have millions of your compatriots die rather than lose 3-4 weeks of savings? you are unbelievable.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 04:38:51)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England

uziq wrote:

extending it is the whole fucking point! haha. it's like you don't understand the basic epidemiology AT ALL.

at this point the problem isn't going away. it's going to be here until peak summer, when it might abate for a while, but then in all likelihood it will return again in fall/winter 2020/21. realistically this is not going to stop disrupting our lives or being a factor in our business until we develop a vaccine. it's not going to go back into its box. trump saying "it'll go away" might stop the sweat from beading on approximately 3.5 gullible traders' brows on wall street, but it is scientifically illiterate.

we are past the phase of containment (a self-inflicted failure in the case of america, where your testing was singularly incompetent), and it is now a matter of delaying infection rates and PRECISELY 'extending it'.

you keep saying how it's no more dangerous than flu (which is demonstrably false). but we are only at the beginning of the crisis in places like the US and UK. the real danger is when the health system collapses due to too many cases, all at once: this is why italy has a mortality rate of nearer 7-8%. yes, mortality rates among the young are low, but that's because the young are being prioritised and given necessary ICU treatment. this virus can put a healthy 30-something on their ass in intensive care for 2-3 weeks, without which they would die of pneumonia or heart failure. think about that. the UK has about 3,300 ventilators. the US won't declare its exact numbers but fauci above is on record as saying that publicly there are around 5,000 available. you can afford to have fewer than 10,000 people in total at any one time suffering a complex/severe case of this virus. after that, you have to triage so that, say, those > 60 are not given treatment and inevitably die. the ENTIRE strategy therefore is to delay it and to let the inevitable happen gradually.

how do you not understand that at all? yes, it is not as dangerous as ebola where scary-high numbers drop dead. but it is a public health crisis: the virus might not be as 'lethal', but it is far, far more infectious, and people will die because of resource management/allocation, and a lack of care. developing severe pneumonia is no joke. it requires a month of top-tier hospitalization to survive without life-changing injuries.

'the medicine is worse than the disease'? you are slightly unreal with this. you would rather die than lose money? you would rather trust politicians with their guidance on this, with their eye on electability and economic performance, than the medical experts who can tell you, categorically, how dangerous this virus is? yes, people are going to suffer economic hardship. yes, it will be a question of governments having to mobilize aid, funding, exceptional measures. what's the alternative? everyone spreads this thing in a firestorm because 'business must go on as usual'? you'd literally rather have millions of your compatriots die rather than lose 3-4 weeks of savings? you are unbelievable.
I'm glad you get to play amateur epidemiologist and post links to dumbass twitter accounts so you can bask in their reflected glory. I know this is exciting for you, but a lot of people are having their lives destroyed right now for minimal gain.

And this has nothing to do with me. I'm salaried. I don't care about my 401k because I can't touch it for another 35 years. I'm worried about all of the hourly employees that are now completely fucked.

Last edited by Jay (2020-03-16 04:43:31)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+493|3673
once again, i linked to a person who has modeled pandemic spreads and led research groups at imperial college, cambridge, UCL, etc for over 10 years.

'amateur epidemiologist and dumbass twitter accounts'. OK jay. you keep being upset about your pension fund now.

it's not exciting for me at all. i have a lot of high-risk people in my immediate family who could die from this. you don't seem to understand that you're vulnerable, too, as are your parents, your godparents, etc. it's cute.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 04:45:21)

RTHKI
mmmf mmmf mmmf
+1,741|6958|Oxferd Ohire
Oh yes saving people's lives because the system isn't overwhelmed is minimal gain.
https://i.imgur.com/tMvdWFG.png
uziq
Member
+493|3673
jay's heart bleeds for all the hourly waged workers. no, really. they actually want to be out there riding deliveroo bikes to infected households, serving drinks in crowded bars full of vectors of infection, etc. jay is speaking up for the oppressed little man. he's practically a saint.
Larssen
Member
+99|2109
368 deaths in a single day in Italy. These sort of stats are warzone numbers.
uziq
Member
+493|3673
what's 330,000,000 minus 368?

i rest my case. next!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,813|6327|eXtreme to the maX

Jay wrote:

I hope the drama queens are now satiated.
You don't believe in planning ahead though, other people do.

You don't want to have an accident and then discover the hospitals are crammed with gasping 70 year olds presumably.
Fuck Israel
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England

uziq wrote:

once again, i linked to a person who has modeled pandemic spreads and led research groups at imperial college, cambridge, UCL, etc for over 10 years.

'amateur epidemiologist and dumbass twitter accounts'. OK jay. you keep being upset about your pension fund now.

it's not exciting for me at all. i have a lot of high-risk people in my immediate family who could die from this. you don't seem to understand that you're vulnerable, too, as are your parents, your godparents, etc. it's cute.
I know you've never had any responsibility before in your life, either in your personal life, or professionally. The reason he is a dumbass is because he is on twitter spouting off about shit he's not involved in. He is violating professional ethics codes and he should be written up by his superiors for it. If there is some engineering disaster somewhere and I start giving unsolicited advice and backing up my advice with my credentials, I am in very real danger of being sued and/or losing my license.

I don't care what he has to say because, no matter how qualified he is, he's just creating noise and spreading panic because he is communicating with laypeople like you.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,813|6327|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

i’m not sure what the point is in your repeated attempts to apportion ‘blame’ and tut-tut at our global system.
If you don't deal with the root cause this will happen over and over, plus the secondary factors which make it worse.

AIDS, Ebola, SARS, COVID-19 etc, all the same root cause - butchering exotic animals which would be better left alone.

That and excessive travel.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+493|3673
only one of those came from harvesting exotic animals but nevermind. the rest are precisely cases of people foraging for bushmeat. i asked you before how you’re going to stop a poor african from foraging for available meat like they have done for generations. it has nothing to do with flashy chinese people wanting to eat high-status exotic meats. it’s part of many peoples basic daily diet and sustenance.

how are you going to stop that? it’s far more realistic to talk about international collaboration on quarantine and containment rather than trying to control people from picking up animals in their back yard.
uziq
Member
+493|3673

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

once again, i linked to a person who has modeled pandemic spreads and led research groups at imperial college, cambridge, UCL, etc for over 10 years.

'amateur epidemiologist and dumbass twitter accounts'. OK jay. you keep being upset about your pension fund now.

it's not exciting for me at all. i have a lot of high-risk people in my immediate family who could die from this. you don't seem to understand that you're vulnerable, too, as are your parents, your godparents, etc. it's cute.
I know you've never had any responsibility before in your life, either in your personal life, or professionally. The reason he is a dumbass is because he is on twitter spouting off about shit he's not involved in. He is violating professional ethics codes and he should be written up by his superiors for it. If there is some engineering disaster somewhere and I start giving unsolicited advice and backing up my advice with my credentials, I am in very real danger of being sued and/or losing my license.

I don't care what he has to say because, no matter how qualified he is, he's just creating noise and spreading panic because he is communicating with laypeople like you.
violating professional ethics codes? LMAO he’s an academic researcher. he shared very clearly what he knows and (perhaps more importantly) stated clearly what is not knowable due to a lack of data.

i think you’re in for a pleasant surprise if you think academics are punished for communicating their findings or information on twitter. quite the obverse, as many of them are now rated better as researchers for public engagement and profile. poor little jay, the outside world is so confusing to him.

also nothing he said created panic or alarm. he said very realistically that this isn’t going away for a year. it’s a very complex problem. just because you don’t like hearing it, doesn’t mean he’s out of line for stating coolly the case. ‘facts don’t care about feelings’ jay!!!

I know you've never had any responsibility before in your life, either in your personal life, or professionally.
and gtfo out of here with the pointless broadsides. you have no idea how this is affecting other people and their daily routines. as always, it only seems to get your attention and raise your snout when your personal finances are involved.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 05:26:52)

uziq
Member
+493|3673
140,000 people have been laid off in northern ireland alone -- triple the number of the 2010 crash.

20,000 people have applied for state benefits over the weekend alone.

we are looking at a period, possibly even up to a year, of the few who can continue in employment supporting the many who cannot.

this could have long-lasting changes on societies and the way they structure their economies. it's no good crying about socialism when half the workforce can't go do their public-facing roles. i would happily pay a higher income tax for this.

virgin, for e.g., has asked its employees to take a period of unpaid leave, citing it would cost the company £33 million to continue their full paid employment. branson, the owner of virgin, is worth about £4 billion and takes £6.5 million as a basic salary, before benefits, per year.

there's going to be a reckoning, but it might not take the form that Jay would like.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-16 09:02:17)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England
Enjoy your curfew macbeth
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+493|3673
the fake numbers on wall street are going to go down. the economy is a big over-inflated balloon of bad debt and it wants to deflate.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+640|3941
4000 cases in the U.S. now including Tom Hanks and Idris Elba. Hanks is high risk.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+493|3673
the US has 10,000s cases at this point if the modelling is to go by. you aren't testing.

when will Jay start taking it seriously? even trump is giving serious recommendations now.

france has frozen all bills and rent. good idea.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6993|PNW

I don't really see how people are being drama queens in the face of what we know, and what we know that we don't know. Highly infectious, mutating virus with no vaccine, a worrisome death rate, and reappearing in discharged patients.

Jay, your 401(k) will probably rebound if that's what you're worried the most about.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5579|London, England

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

I don't really see how people are being drama queens in the face of what we know, and what we know that we don't know. Highly infectious, mutating virus with no vaccine, a worrisome death rate, and reappearing in discharged patients.

Jay, your 401(k) will probably rebound if that's what you're worried the most about.
I couldn't care less about my 401k. What I am opposed to is taking the absolute worse case scenario and shutting down entire metropolitan areas. If you're a politician and placed in a position of power you're supposed to take a balanced approach that minimizes harm to everyone. Kowtowing to the most panic stricken among us does no one any favors. They've now shut down schools, restaurants, bars, gyms, cinemas etc. in NYC. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs. Who's paying their rent or putting food on their table? There will be riots and looting in a few weeks, watch.

What they should've done is send the at-risk people home for a few weeks and paid them unemployment.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+493|3673
pray tell, who are the 'at-risk' people? your testing has lagged far behind capacity. the virus is highly infectious, remaining on surfaces for up to 20 hours and being spread via the air pretty handily.

everyone is at risk. that's the entire point dumkopf.
Larssen
Member
+99|2109
Jay there's 3 scenario's:

1. Let covid-19 run its course. Hospitals in your entire country will quickly be overrun by hundreds of thousands of deathly ill people. No one has immunity, so it is likely the majority of the US population would contract the virus. With a growth factor of 10% daily the entire population could be infected in a matter of months. Your healthcare & insurance industry would collapse, not to mention literally millions of dead people in a matter of MONTHS. As a surprising amount of young people need help, expect those 60+ or even 50+ to not get the aid they need. This could also cause superinfections and quick mutations due to the rapid spread.

2. Lock everything down completely, to the point that nobody is allowed to leave their homes. Considering there's no vaccine, this would be a wait-and-pray strategy hoping covid-19 will be completely eliminated in due time. This could at current numbers take over a year. The societal and economic consequences would be disastrous. Great depression levels of disastrous. Also, when quarantine is lifted covid-19 will strike again because immunity has not been built in the population.

3. Sustained control of the virus. Strengthening and loosening containment measures throughout the coming period to limit the amount of people that will end up in the hospital simultaneously. This will build herd immunity while allowing life as usual to continue in some way. The majority of the population will probably still contract corona, but all those in need will be helped. A deep recession is inevitable, but industries could survive and deaths will be limited.

Those are the only 3 outcomes virologists, ICU surgeons and other medical experts have predicted for us. Pick your poison. There is no good answer. You still don't grasp the gravity of what's happening - it's the first real pandemic in 100 years. I do sympathise, as the USA is the least prepared country in the West to deal with this situation. Your lack of social securities and how that will affect infection rates & stability is even a point of discussion in Europe.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-03-16 14:29:18)

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