BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

Larssen wrote:

Larssen wrote:

So the entire country of Italy has just been placed in quarantine by its PM.

https://files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4

@jay, this was 5 days ago. I think the problem people have is that they can't believe it until it's visualised.

Even China quarantined and has a death rate close to 4% on its confirmed cases.

They're doing it here now. My kids are off this entire next week. Entire states have shut down. Every gathering of over 500 people in New York state has been banned. They've canceled all sports matches. They've canceled all concerts. They've shut down the schools. People are panic buying food and toilet paper like it's the end of the fucking world. The news is 24/7 coronavirus. My facebook feed is 24/7 coronavirus. The entire goddamned world has gone insane.

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

2,700 people have the virus among a population of 329,000,000. 0.0000082067 of the population. We were looking at what? 50,000 deaths, tops? That's how many die every year from the flu in this country. We don't panic, shut down the entire country and go into quarantine. This is the most absurd and irrational thing I've ever been apart of. And I don't know if it's just a function of the pathos of people who vote a certain way, but fuck, left leaning people have lost their entire fucking minds over this shit. Absolutely batshit. Maybe we do need an Obama president, someone to keep these irrational and entirely fragile people from running amock. It is par for the course though  when a conservative feels unsafe he'll go off in the woods by himself. When a liberal feels unsafe he makes the entire world around him change so he can feel safer. I feel hatred for my fellow man right now.

you are literally insane, jay. so far off the deep end it's unfunny. i feel bad for you.

you're ranting about 'leftists' when i just linked you a twitter thread by a guy who has studied disease outbreaks at one of the world's top centres for a decade. your response? 'he is an idiot'. what did he have to do with left-wing thinking, again? nothing about his analysis involved politics, except to say that economic health and public health have a perfect correlation.

you are severely stupid.

once more, to make the very fucking simple point:

- 2x as contagious as flu
- 20x as deadly
- we can contain flu; it has vaccines, it is seasonal, it has short-term immunity
- we have no containment for coronavirus; we do not know if it is seasonal, we do not know if it gives short-term immunity

every single time in d&st that something comes up that requires national-level action, you cite the fucking population statistic. you have been doing this for years. this is your argument? lmao. jesus christ you couldn't breed this level of stupid if you tried.

america has categorically failed to test people. the test kits aren't available. are you really relying upon officially confirmed figures when your current public health plan isn't even a south korean 'deep test and track' method? do you really think that only 2,700 people in america at this point have coronavirus when every single country in the world with confirmed cases shows exponential growth in infections?

Ok. Math is not your strong suit, I know. Neither is logic. I know it is popular to panic right now, and thus you are panicking. Your only contribution to this world is to be a follower of popular trends. Congratulations. You are adding nothing to the world and this conversation.

Larssen wrote:

I think the problem with the quaratine effort is in the fact that all communication is happening through numbers and data presented by politicians and senior bureaucrats in press conferences. It's an invisible threat in a society that hasn't dealt with a crisis of real magnitude in close to 80 years. From one week to the next the world is going into lock down and the vast majority of the population is given no reference beyond data points to gauge the severity of what's happening.

It's a major mistake - there should've been more video footage or communication from Lombardy or Wuhan and from inside hospitals. Keeping the press corps out of these places in a world that's used to having access to almost any information is a cause of denialism.

Yes, but in America we have the Trump factor. The media and everyone who votes Democrat hates him and distrusts him and feel that whatever he is saying is wrong because they are smarter than him. So Trump says no big deal and these people all go apeshit and panic and take it upon themselves to demand quarantines etc. I can tell how my friends and neighbors vote based on their reaction to this crisis. There's a nearly 100% panic rate among democratic voters. Couple this with the fact that our media is nearly completely controlled by democratic voters and you can understand why this madness is spreading.

If we were all being rational, we would be taking all factors into account, not catering to the demands of the most cautious amongst us. Our national leaders need to be taking what people from the WHO and CDC say with a grain of salt and then comparing it against the needs of the rest of the population. People who work at the WHO and CDC will always take the most cautious approach because their field of vision is limited by their specialty. They don't understand the global economy or how sending people home for two weeks is a nightmare scenario for a lot of people's financial situation. So you do the least bad thing if you're a leader. You take the minimally impactful approach with the biggest benefits. Yes, this may mean doing some callous math and saying you know what? 50,000 deaths is not worth destroying the livelihood of millions over.

Right now, what I'm seeing is cover your ass culture taken to the absolute extreme. No one, no corporation, no government wants to be responsible for even a single death right now. No one wants to be the one that didn't send their non-essential workers home for two weeks. The twitter mobs and the media would go wild and eviscerate whoever dared defy the wisdom of the mob. Our leaders have failed, because they let popular mob mentality win.

your decline has been swift and precipitous. truly a dunce in his own personal confederacy.

people at the WHO and CDC are limited by their specialty ahahahahahhaa

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-15 05:02:36)

Jay wrote:

2,700 people have the virus among a population of 329,000,000. 0.0000082067 of the population. We were looking at what? 50,000 deaths, tops? That's how many die every year from the flu in this country. We don't panic, shut down the entire country and go into quarantine. This is the most absurd and irrational thing I've ever been apart of. And I don't know if it's just a function of the pathos of people who vote a certain way, but fuck, left leaning people have lost their entire fucking minds over this shit. Absolutely batshit. Maybe we do need an Obama president, someone to keep these irrational and entirely fragile people from running amock. It is par for the course though  when a conservative feels unsafe he'll go off in the woods by himself. When a liberal feels unsafe he makes the entire world around him change so he can feel safer. I feel hatred for my fellow man right now.

156,000 infected so far, 5,800 have died, at least start with the right numbers.

And you're wrong, when a 'conservative' feels unsafe he'll demand the govt start borrowing and spending to fix it.

Jay wrote:

There's a nearly 100% panic rate among democratic voters.

Which shock jock told you this?

Couple this with the fact that our media is nearly completely controlled by democratic voters

Well it wasn't a fact and nor is this.

Jay wrote:

2,700 cases in the US.

The US is just into the start, presumably you did exponential progressions?

But I'm sure the whole thing is a liberal plot to mask Trump's great successes.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-03-15 05:39:11)

Larssen wrote:

So what do you propose? Even if the death rate is down to 1% and 60% of the US population gets it, you're looking at 2 million deaths.

also this is a terrible extrapolation. the more % of the population which gets it, the higher the date rate goes, not lower.

italy has already reported many people in their 30s–50s developing pneumonia. that requires ventilation or intubation.

if a large population spike occurs, the date rate is going to take off because there will be no available resources for treatment.

'flattening the curve' of the rate of infection requires more, not less, of the stringent social and public controls that jay disparages as 'panicking'.

if we were to follow jay's 'let's just walk it off in the woods' (no doubt inspired by trump's magical 'it'll go away' thinking), the death rate will be considerably higher than 1%.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/biosciences/depar … is-balloux

professor francois balloux

I studied at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland and obtained a Masters and PhD from the same institution in 1996, and 2000, respectively. After a brief stay at the University of Bern, I moved to Edinburgh, first as a postdoctoral research associate and then as a postdoctoral fellow. I was offered a lectureship in the Department of Genetics in Cambridge in 2002. I built up a successful research group and stayed there for five years. In 2007, I left Cambridge to join the newly formed MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling within the Department of Infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London. I again spent five years there as a Reader there and moved to UCL in 2012 to become professor of Computational Systems Biology. My primary research interest is to use genomic data to answer important fundamental and applied questions in biology and medicine. My research lies at the interface between genomics, epidemiology, evolution and ecology. Over recent years most of my work has focused on human and wildlife pathogens. In addition to reconstructing disease outbreaks and epidemics in space and time for a variety of pathogens, I have become interested in understanding the factors that allow certain lineages to outcompete others. One such factor which is of particular interest is the acquisition and maintenance of antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic bacteria.

"an idiot with a twitter account".

O K

just to clarify, jay: you're calling the above person 'an idiot' and appealing to ... engineers ... as examples of right-thinking? who is better qualified to comment on the coronavirus than the above? can you let me know?

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-15 06:08:59)

uziq wrote:

Larssen wrote:

So what do you propose? Even if the death rate is down to 1% and 60% of the US population gets it, you're looking at 2 million deaths.

also this is a terrible extrapolation. the more % of the population which gets it, the higher the date rate goes, not lower.

italy has already reported many people in their 30s–50s developing pneumonia. that requires ventilation or intubation.

if a large population spike occurs, the date rate is going to take off because there will be no available resources for treatment.

'flattening the curve' of the rate of infection requires more, not less, of the stringent social and public controls that jay disparages as 'panicking'.

if we were to follow jay's 'let's just walk it off in the woods' (no doubt inspired by trump's magical 'it'll go away' thinking), the death rate will be considerably higher than 1%.

I was thinking in terms of best case scenario and also to illustrate that a 'low' number is still not trivial. Our health ministry has stated the amount of confirmed infections can be multiplied by six to get a number closer to actuals. Deaths and critical cases can in that case also be divided by the new number to get more accurate percentages.

This is new information and it has made me think about the measures that are being taken. It's not often spoken of but the economic damage worldwide will cause a lot of suffering downstream in poorer countries as well.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-03-15 06:17:44)

Larssen wrote:

uziq wrote:

Larssen wrote:

So what do you propose? Even if the death rate is down to 1% and 60% of the US population gets it, you're looking at 2 million deaths.

also this is a terrible extrapolation. the more % of the population which gets it, the higher the date rate goes, not lower.

italy has already reported many people in their 30s–50s developing pneumonia. that requires ventilation or intubation.

if a large population spike occurs, the date rate is going to take off because there will be no available resources for treatment.

'flattening the curve' of the rate of infection requires more, not less, of the stringent social and public controls that jay disparages as 'panicking'.

if we were to follow jay's 'let's just walk it off in the woods' (no doubt inspired by trump's magical 'it'll go away' thinking), the death rate will be considerably higher than 1%.

I was thinking in terms of best case scenario and also to illustrate that a 'low' number is still not trivial. Our health ministry has stated the amount of confirmed infections can be multiplied by six to get a number closer to actuals. Deaths and critical cases can in that case also be divided by six to get more accurate percentages.

This is new information and it has made me think about the measures that are being taken. It's not often spoken of but the economic damage worldwide will cause a lot of suffering downstream in poorer countries as well.

Yes. Here in the US, they are saving available test kits for those that are higher risk patients and sending everyone else home to self-quarantine. Even then, 98-99% of people have something else like the flu. It doesn't help that we're having an early spring and people are getting their seasonal allergies.

People are legitimately angry because the US government didn't have 329,000,000 test kits sitting in storage somewhere waiting for this day. The world is nuts.